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January 23, 2008 09:22 PM

Categories: General Robotics

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Robert Gilmore

Member
Joined: 01/02/2008

I just have a quick  but important question for all of us to consider.

With the science of robotics becoming more advanced, what do you think about the eventual reality that robots may begin taking the jobs of humans in large numbers?  Really, it has already begun to happen.  Just look at Detroit, my hometown and the center of the auto industry.  For decades now, machinery has been saving the big three millions by eliminating jobs robots are capable of doing.  GM just announced in the Detroit Auto Show that we will have auto piloted cars within ten years; there go limo and cab drivers!  Should we be afraid?  When does innovation meet self annihilation?  

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MrScott Avatar
  Moderator
January 23, 2008 9:31 PM

Machinery has been displacing manual labor since the industrial revolution.

How many farm hands used to be needed to tend crops that a single mechanized harvester now can do? 

The difference is that the machinery is getting really good at detailed assembly now. Robots can assemble intricate pieces that a human could not do for an 8 hour shift.

The answer is to have worthwhile employment for the person who is no longer bagging groceries, collecting shopping carts, shoveling gravel, etcetera. 

ScottE -- Member (always) & Moderator (when needed)

Robert Gilmore Avatar
Member
January 23, 2008 10:06 PM

MrScott said: The answer is to have worthwhile employment for the person who is no longer bagging groceries, collecting shopping carts, shoveling gravel, etcetera. 
Specifically, what do you mean by worthwhile employment?  What new kinds of jobs could be created?  I'm seventeen and work as a bagger in a grocery store.  From what I can see, every job in the joint could be replaced by robots except that of manager.  What would all these unemployed people do?  Could we ever become so efficient that some people simply no longer need to work?

Robert Gilmore Avatar
Member
January 23, 2008 10:07 PM

Oops, sorry about what appears to be the extended quote.  Only the first box contains the words of Mr. Scott.

milw Avatar
  Moderator
January 23, 2008 10:20 PM

Personally, I think there will be movement to renunciate technology, a 'return to earth' type movement where it is honorable to raise your own food and try to exist within a small local community. Might cause a divergence, with the techies leaving Earth in an insatiable pursuit of resources.

It's also interesting to read the theories of the coming 'Singularity', when the machines become capable of reproducing themselves independent of human input. Then it'll be an exponential cascade of machine evolution, way faster than our biological evolution can cope with. Maybe we will be the pets! 

Rovio rules!
Wisconsin Iron :: Cellular Atomics

Robert Gilmore Avatar
Member
January 23, 2008 10:22 PM

Ya, I hope not.  Should we begin doing something about it now?

MrScott Avatar
  Moderator
January 23, 2008 10:24 PM

Nothing wrong with any of those jobs, but I'd see all those jobs as something an automated system might take over. There already are cart tractors that attendants load with carts in front of it, but it drives them back into the store.

What new jobs? Skilled labor. I studied manufacturing productivity and technology transfer in grad school. At that time (while dinosaurs roamed the campus devouring young co-eds) the  economics of automation weren't working out. They still haven't worked out based on the lack of robotics in general manufacturing in the US. By the time an assembly process was re-engineered to make it possible to automate, there were so many efficiencies realized that manual labor was still cost effective.

So what sort of skilled labor is in the offing? More of the sorts of jobs that have been created as manual book keeping has fallen by the wayside. Somebody has to handle the care and feeding of all our new toys. Robots are going to be mechanical devices, with all of their inherent vices. They will wear, break, screw themselves and their surrounding up, and generally require trouble shooters.

Car mechanics used to have wrenches, screwdrivers, and a hammer. Now they need computer analysis and tuning equipment. I foresee the addition of complexity to a lot of our widgets just making widget repair a high tech job. 

ScottE -- Member (always) & Moderator (when needed)

Kadeiqus Avatar
Member
January 23, 2008 10:47 PM

milw said:  ...it'll be an exponential cascade of machine evolution, way faster than our biological evolution can cope with. Maybe we will be the pets! 
MrScott said: ...I foresee the addition of complexity to a lot of our widgets just making widget repair a high tech job.

First off... I made that remark about "US" being the "pets" merely as an off handed joke!  But unfortunately it does raise a rather scary vision of a potential future.  Anyhow, on to more happier topics... LOL 

I agree with MrScott on the job situation.  Back when computers first came about, people had some of the same fears.  But as computers have grown in complexity, so have their problems!  This has created a large influx in the Computer Technology field of study.  Places like "Geek Squad" are popping up all over the place, and yet the demand for that line of work is still growing.  Why?  Because technology is still advancing and we need people to help maintain it.  Worst case senario, the person at the plant that gets laid off has to go back to school and learn a new trade, where he is then hired back on at the plant as a tech that can work on the machines that replaced his old job!

Robert Gilmore Avatar
Member
January 23, 2008 11:09 PM

Valid Points.

Peter Redmer Avatar
  Administrator
January 25, 2008 4:22 PM

Science is really starting to enter the realm of science fiction (but then again, isn't that always the case, as history advances?  The novel 1984 is scary in how accurate it was, in many ways!)

I've been reading about micro-mechanical medical robots that are getting smaller and smaller.  And there's lots of talk about robots that will reporoduce by themselves (milw's comment.)

The latter is frightening to me, if allowed to develop unchecked, it could be a horrible disaster!  I'd rather take my programmable RS Media :)

I think that as our economy evolves, and the job market evolves, new jobs are created.  If you look at the employment statistics in the US from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, it shows some interesting numbers.

Check out this page also, from BLS data. (Warning, turn your pop-up blocker on for this page.) 

Pete

Peter Redmer
Administrator
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